Trump is losing votes across the voting board

AP Photo / Evan Vucci

A poll by CNN, and another by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal both show that Biden’s lead over Trump is increasing. NBC found Biden to be leading with a 14-point lead among all registered voters. The CNN poll demonstrated a 16-point lead for Biden over Trump.

Trump is in DESPERATION mode right now. He knows his divisive rhetoric isn’t going to get him more votes. All the polls show more voters are coming out to vote against him. So why do it? It’s because he is losing his moderate supporters, and needs to feed his base more red meat. pic.twitter.com/TNnvpL7ZNz

— The Independent (@thinkerdamous) October 1, 2020

Most importantly, the latest polls show that seniors are increasingly favoring Biden. The CNN poll, released on Tuesday, found that 60 percent choose Biden over 39 percent in favor of Trump. While the NBC poll showed a 62-35 percent lead for Biden over Trump in this category.

All polls count, but some polls count more than others

Screenshot/Youtube

The headway Biden has made in the over 65 category is all-important because senior citizens are America’s most reliable voters. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has alienated this base against him, as senior voters are more vulnerable to COVID-19.

NEW National Poll:

Biden 56% (+16)
Trump 40%@SurveyUSA pic.twitter.com/pKzXG9cjtZ

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 6, 2020

In 2016, Trump led in this critical category by seven percent. This October, surveys from the New York Times and the Siena College poll show Biden ahead in the over 65 category. He holds an eleven point lead in Pennsylvania, a two-point lead in Florida, and he is ahead by one point in Arizona.

Biden came out on top in the debate

These polls were taken shortly after the first Presidential debate last Tuesday. The NBC and Wall Street Journal poll showed that 49 percent of interviewees believed Biden did a better job in the debate, over 24 percent for Trump.

While according to the CNN poll, only 27 percent of respondents thought that Trump did a better job in the debate, against 58 percent for Biden.

Tonight Debate made you think…

Biden:
Better of him 38% (+6)
Worse of him 32%
.
Trump:
Better of him 24% (-18)
Worse of him 42%@YouGovAmerica/@CBSNewsPoll, Among Debate Watchers
#Debates2020 pic.twitter.com/ukZSuP0i5l

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 30, 2020

50 percent of respondents had a ‘very negative’ view of Trump

Twitter / @DonaldJGrumpy

For the first time, 50 percent of respondents in the NBC and Wall Street Journal poll declared they had a “very negative” view of Donald Trump.

The share of voters with “very negative” views of President Trump hit 50% for the first time since he took office https://t.co/9nEfTjf4BV

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 5, 2020

On the other hand, the “feeling thermometer” has a good reading for Joe Biden. Last year, a greater number of respondents had negative than positive feelings for the Democratic candidate. In these latest post-debate polls, Biden is recording a positive score by two percent over negative.

Given that Trump is in deep and uncertain waters right now, those two percentage points could make all the difference.

Could the Trump campaign drive out new voters from college?

Canva

One theory is that the Trump campaign will seek victory by driving out new voters to the polls, particularly white college students. While this is a possibility, critics point out the logistical difficulty of turning out never-before registered voters to the polls. In 2016, Trump sought to flip Obama voters against Hilary Clinton.

This time around, Democrats are unlikely to make the same mistake.

WaPo/ABC poll also shows Biden cutting into Trump's margins with white non-college voters while expanding support with white college grads, resulting in an overall +9 lead https://t.co/I4imq73ODg

— Adam Wollner (@AdamWollner) September 29, 2020

The swing of things

Wikipedia / PNG Guru

Biden may have a lead over Trump in the national polls — but so did Hilary Clinton.

This treemap combines the largest metro areas of the Sun Belt swing states into one. These rapidly growing and diversifying metros have seen explosive Dem growth, fueled by anti-Trump sentiment. #ElectionTwitter pic.twitter.com/Wta5i7vGVo

— Max 👻 (@maxtmcc) September 18, 2020

The outcome of the election lies largely in the lap of the handful of swing states. Every day, the Guardian’s poll tracker presents a rolling 14-day average of the polls across eight swing states. The two men are nearly neck to neck, but Biden has a narrow lead in nearly all the swing states.

Trump is in deep, deep trouble. If the polls were off by as much as they were in 2016, Biden would win with 319 electoral votes. https://t.co/L3K8H5jI3t pic.twitter.com/vYaZBJIN8Y

— 👻Boo ( Drew ) Savicki 👻 (@SenhorRaposa) October 6, 2020

Over the next 27 days, all eyes will be on states such as Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan.

Things look good but don’t get complacent

Flickr / Gage Skidmore

The President falling ill with COVID-19 has returned the coronavirus pandemic firmly back into the foreground of the political arena, and Trump does not come out well.

It is too early to be complacent, however. Every vote counts. Democrats felt good about the election in 2016 — and we all know how that turned out.

Trump looks defeated .
He now is lobbing land mines everywhere for the Democrats to deal with.

Blue can't let down their guard though, need to campaign and vote like they are behind in the Polls
a reminder pic.twitter.com/xe2p2qHcSw

— Ned (@NedOpposes) October 7, 2020