These Democrats are poised to sweep out a GOP Senate with Trump in November

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It’s not just the presidency that’s on the line this November. The Senate could be flipped too.

On November 3, 35 incumbents — 12 Democrats and 23 Republicans — will fight it out for Senate seats.

According to a forecast by FiveThirtyEight (538), a popular political poll and analysis website, Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 to 54 seats. This includes two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. That’s almost a majority.

Here’s a list of all the Democrats that stand a solid chance of winning the Senate seats that are up for election, and those that are leaning towards likely.

Sara Gideon - Maine

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Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, Sara Gideon (D), is proving a challenging opponent for GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine as she fights it out for a fourth term. Gideon raised a million dollars immediately after she declared her campaign in December.

Sen. Collins riled people up when she voted in favor of Trump’s acquittal, and his Supreme Court appointee, Judge Brett Kavanaugh. One poll even showed her disapproval rating at 53%, with 538 giving her opponent a 58% chance of taking the Senate from her.

Will Maine vote blue like it did in the last seven of the presidential elections? November will tell.

Jaime Harrison - South Carolina

South Carolina Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison

JaimeHarrison.com

The South Carolina senate race is heating up with challenger Jaime Harrison giving Lindsey Graham a (literal) run for his money. Harrison has been raising millions leaving Graham to whine on Fox News about his lack of funds.

New polls are showing the candidates are within one to two points of each other. Graham’s current poor approval rating has been giving Harrison a big push with South Carolinians.

Cal Cunningham - North Carolina

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A former state lawmaker, military prosecutor, and Iraq war vet, Cal Cunningham (D) is in a tight race with Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in the all-important battleground state of North Carolina.

As a life-long North Carolinian, Cunningham has hammered Sen. Tillis for being responsible for not expanding Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act in the state, leaving more than 200,000 people without access to affordable health insurance.

Their fundraising is pretty equal too: about $13.7 million for Tillis and $14.8 million for Cunningham, making it a recipe for a very tight race. 538 gives Cunnigham a 63% chance of winning. Even a Fox News poll shows him in a slight lead of 48%.

Mark Kelly - Arizona

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American astronaut, engineer, and former U.S. Navy captain, Mark Kelly is in a close battle for the Senate with Sen. Martha McSally who was appointed to the late Sen. John McCain’s old seat in 2019.

Sen McCain’s widow just endorsed Biden for president, so the odds are truly stacked against Sen. McSally — giving Kelly a 78% chance of taking the Senate seat, according to 538.

Americans think it’s even more important that he wins because of this:

John Hickenlooper - Colorado

Democrat Hickenlooper at an event

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Former governor of Colorado, John Hickenlooper is in a head-to-head polling battle with Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in the battleground state of Colorado.

Gardner is doing everything in his power to retain his seat — including currying favor with the president by backing his SCOTUS nominee to fill RBG’s seat.

This is the most-watched Senate race in the U.S. for a reason — its outcome will affect the partisan control of the U.S. Senate. 538 gives Hickenlooper a 72% chance of winning.

Jeanne Shaheen - New Hampshire

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Her experience (and years) in the Senate is likely to see her emerge as a winner.

A member of the U.S. Senate since 2009 and having served as the state’s (first woman) governor before that, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is running for re-election against Bryant Messner (R) and Justin O’Donnell (L).

According to 538’s calculations, she stands a 99% chance of emerging victorious.

Creating jobs by helping small businesses grow, her advocacy for the U.S. to transition to clean energy and veterans’ access to health care, and clamping down on the “culture of greed on Wall Street” give her the edge against Messner who was endorsed by Trump.

Amy McGrath - Kentucky

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Things in Kentucky are heating up, and former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath is putting up quite a fight for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s seat. Recent polls still show McConnell winning this race in Kentucky and maintaining his seat, but polls have been wrong before.

McGrath is still pulling in donations from across the country, and she also has a lot of support in the state.

Mark Warner - Virginia

Flickr/Mark Warner

Democrat Sen. Mark Warner is up for re-election for a third term. Recent polls show him in a comfortable, double-digit lead — even 538 forecasts that he is clearly favored to win.

He is running against Daniel Gade, a newcomer to politics, who believes some responses to coronavirus are an overreaction and that “the curve is actually kind of flat in most places, so it’s time to get our economy back to work.”

On the other hand, aside from masking up, Sen. Warner posts infamous tuna-melt tutorials that double as reminders to wash your hands.

Although neither Warner nor Gade wants to defund the police, the Republican contender believes that banning police chokeholds is “actually ridiculous.“

Your vote can flip the Senate

A photograph of a Vote sign with arrow and american flag

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There are other races that aren’t polling quite so close, but that doesn’t mean the Democrats have no shot. Every single vote counts!

Tina Smith - Minnesota

Another neck-to-neck match is between Democratic U.S. Sen. Tina Smith and former U.S. Congressman Jason Lewis in the “land of close elections“, Minnesota.

Another race that will decide who controls the Senate, the two are polar opposites when it comes to key issues like the pandemic, economy, climate change, and policing.

A recent poll by Emerson Polling showed Smith leading Lewis 48% to 45%, with 7% undecided. 538 gives the senator a 95% chance of retaining her seat.

Gary Peters - Michigan

The race in Michigan, where Trump won in 2016, is heating up too as Sen. Gary Peters‘ fights out his Republican businessman opponent, John James in a slim lead.

Sen. Peters is big on finding common ground with his colleagues and getting things done. So when he says “I don’t just talk about it. I demonstrate it“, research from the Center for Effective Lawmaking backs up that claim. — He was ranked the fourth most effective Democratic senator over 2017 and 2018.

538 says that Peters is favored to win in Michigan — 79%.

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